The FTSE 100 picture is interesting. Here the index has hit resistance at its 38% retracement level. The intraday chart shows that today’s rally is still below Monday’s high point. (other European markets like the DAX are powering ahead with government debt worries removed from the picture) One has to wonder if the fact that the ECB will not be buying U.K. gilts as part of their bailout now makes the U.K. a more likely target for the next appearance of the sovereign debt contagion.
Other European markets have taken huge relief from the bail-out as their government’s gilt markets are now underwritten by the massive EU bail-out. London is outside the bail-out and is being threatened on the QT with murmurs from French politicians saying things like – ‘you’ll see what we can do to you when you don’t join in the fináncial bail-out structure.’ I’ve seen comments like that on Open Europe in the last two days.
Cameron and Clegg have declared their intention to stand aside from the Euro, and from the main part of the Eurozone bail-out package, but the bringing of revenge from the combination of markets looking for a target, and the one world government programme looking to bring the UK to heel could be messy indeed for Sterling and the FTSE, not to mention our new Labradoodle government.
If Cameron gives in to the pressure, it will only get worse longer term. He has to stand and fight. This is now blackmail. But thanks to Gordon Brown and his decade long bout of ahem ‘prudence’, we are at about our most vulnerable with government finances in an even worse state than he has admitted. This is really the financial battle of Britain about to begin. It is a fight we cannot afford to lose.
We will see if Clegg really stands by his word on the EU, as we will see markets being used as a political device to humble Britain’s rebelliousness. The Americans will not want to see Britain brought down, but the IMF is in French hands these days, with Strauss Kahn at its head. Britain’s financial crisis is really about to arrive, and we might find ourselves totally isolated.
If I was Cameron I would let Sterling fall as far as it wants, even to $ parity. That is our get out of jail card. He could also, under direct assault from the markets driven on by the EU hoping they will break us, cut government spending at a far faster rate, with 20% pay cuts across the board.
Manufacturing will surge if Cameron reduces all the New labour red tape about hiring and firing, and Britain can get back into business. Short term interest rates might surge and people with unpaid mortgages, most of us, get annihilated.
It could become a bloodbath, just as intended it should be by the people who encouraged Brown to get Britain into debts so large we could never sustain them or pay them off. That is the choke collar they chose to get us into their power, and they are about to give the lead a very firm tug, to see if they can exert leverage.
Or Cameron could let loose the local responsibility programmes closing down the quangoes and the centralised bureaucracies. Much will turn on the confidence of markets in this government’s ability to hold together while the storm clouds gather. It won’t be just a shower this time. Clegg will be in the thick of it. Maybe he will learn not to love the EU bureaucracy as he has done in the past. They now want his demise, as he has saved Cameron’s skin. Make no mistake about that. Clegg has crossed the Rubicon.
Get ready, Labradoodles (My term-in-progress for our new mongrel government, inspired by photograph). The EU’s going to be saying ‘walkies’ any day now. You’ve hardly arrived, yet it’s already time to show your teeth. This is financial 1940.
See Telegraph here.
Officials from both euro and non-euro countries said Britain should not ask for help if it runs into trouble because it had not signed up to a £378 billion support fund.
French, Swedish and many Brussels officials have predicted that it is only a matter of time before Sterling is hit by the same market turbulence that came close to destroying the euro at the weekend.
Jean-Pierre Jouyet, a former French Europe minister and the current chairman of France’s financial services authority, yesterday predicted only “God would help” a rudderless Britain after it snubbed its euro zone neighbours.
Doesn’t he just wish!!!
“There is not a two speed Europe but a three speed Europe. You have Europe of the euro, Europe of the countries that understand the euro … and you have the English,” he said.
“The English are very certainly going to be targeted given the political difficulties they have. Help yourself and heaven will help you. If you don’t want to show solidarity to the euro zone, then let’s see what happens to the United Kingdom.”
French bank BNP Paribas yesterday warned that the post-election fallout could lead to Britain’s losing its high creditworthiness market rating, a move that could lead to a run on the pound. The UK is running an annual debt rate even higher than Greece.
The British papers can’t resist a little bit of fun first though, before the French and other eurozone believers send over some financial bombing raids. The new blitz is on its way – on sterling….
Hattip. Political Betting