Those watching Russian tanks and jets attacking Georgian targets in South Ossetia and other parts of Georgia should remember that it was the EU’s recognition and support of Kosovan independence which triggered this eruption of open warfare. Putin stated that he would not sit idly by if the EU pressed ahead with its EULEX in Kosovo, and that he would make a military response if they did. He said that if the ‘West’ thought the break-up of countries could be initiated, then he too would feel able to promote similar ‘secessions’ to Kosovo, where Russia desired such an outcome.
The tensions in South Ossetia and the deployment of Russian peace-keepers began in February, according to the Guardian HERE, and were a direct result of the actions of the EU in Kosovo. The link has an excellent video news report from an ‘on-the-ground’ reporter, which I recommend.
The EU is sufficiently arrogant to go about breaking up Serbia in defiance of Russia, acting as if in the role of a superpower, and yet it has no army to back up its political actions. The EU not only ignores the democratic decisions of the peoples it purports to rule. It is extremely dangerous in another way – as it also ignores the strategic realities of the word, and doesn’t understand that there have to be limits to its power and actions.
Ignoring the views and expressed wishes of its own citizens is one thing, but ignoring those who possess military power and have expressed a willingness to use it, such as Prime Minister Putin, is downright folly – folly which has more instant response.
I don’t believe America wants a war with Russia, and there is no doubt that the EU will be pulling up the white flags in Brussels as soon as one shot is fired in Georgia. The hopelessness of the EU talking big and trying to push Russia around in its former territories is now becoming apparent.
This is a bad situation, and it will no doubt become increasingly tragic if Kazakhstan joins the war against Georgia alongside the Russians. But one good thing might come out of it. The Americans might finally see that the EU is a useless ally, and return to dealing with the nations states of Europe on an individual basis.
Meanwhile Brussels officials are demanding a ceasfire in the war that they caused, but which they will too frightened to take any part in.
The situation on the ground in Kosovo might also now be affected if NATO is shown by Russia to be all talk and no bite, which will inevitably happen. Suffering overstretch in Aghanistan, the US and NATO are hardly going to embark on a war with Russia. Kosovo will become like an Iraq and a Suez rolled into one. The EU will experience military humiliation and the end of empire before it’s even begun.
After Russia has shown that it is willing to go to war, and take casualties, the next international meetings that are held to discuss central Europe, probably at the UN will see a world with a very different axis of power than before, with the EU a much reduced figure. In the meantime, others will be paying the price for its folly and arrogance. The people of Georgia will be suffering greatly.
For some strategic analysis as to who might be next on Putin’s list see Richard North on Bruges Group Blog HERE