Let alone the 49/23 split in YouGov’s latest opinion poll in favour of the Conservatives, there is another factor to bear in mind. Labour’s 40 Scottish Westminster MPs elected are coming under severe threat from the SNP. Recent polling has gone as follows as reported by Stuart Dickson May on Politicalbetting.com today.
Here is the Scotland sub-sample from the latest Populus/Times poll GB-wide voting intention poll. Fieldwork was largely (or more probably fully?) conducted before the Wendy Alexander/independence referendum crisis kicked off in the Scottish Labour Party last Sunday/Monday. The week since then has been truly astonishing – I cannot remember a week like it in all my years of following Scottish politics. Truly unprecedented.
Remember: Populus is a pollster which almost without exception provides poll findings more sympathetic to Labour than the other pollsters. Usual caveats regarding sub-samples apply.
Scottish Westminster voting intention
fieldwork: 2-4 May 2008
sample size: 133
(% change from UK GE 2005)
1. SNP 41% (+23%)
2. Lab 25% (-14%)
3. Con 18% (+2%)
4. LD 11% (-12%)
5. BNP 2% (+2%)
Electoral Calculus seats calculator:
1. SNP 43 seats (+37 seats)
2. Lab 8 seats (-32 seats)
3. LD 5 seats (-6 seats)
4. Con 3 seats (+2 seats)
5. Speaker (Michael Martin) 1 seat (n/c)
I will not list all the seat changes, but suffice to say that the following ministers, and Lib Dem frontbenchers, would lose their seats to the SNP: Alistair Darling, Des Browne, Dougie Alexander, David Cairns, Danny Alexander and Michael Moore.
So, if things were that bad for Scottish Labour before the Alexander/Brown split, just how bad are things going to get now? Bring it on
The latest YouGov/Sun Scottish sub-sample, which I reported on yesterday’s thread, were: SNP 32% (23 seats), Lab 26% (20 seats), Con 21% (7 seats), LD 13% (8 seats), Speaker 1 seat.
Before any voting is taken into account from the rest of the UK, Labour’s Westminster majority would be down to around the 30 mark, if this pattern were repeated in an election. The collapse of Labour’s support on all fronts is totally devastating. PICTURED – The Chancellor of The Exchequer Alistair Darling, likely to become a casualty of Brown’s second collapse – the one in Scotland.
If this keeps going, Brown himself might come onto the casualty list. Are we approaching the biggest electoral bloodbath in British electoral history?