Whatever the final outcome of Super Tuesday, it seems likely from initial reports, for example from his projected win in Connecticut (yet to be confirmed), that Obama has got himself within striking distance of Hillary Clinton. She will no doubt yet tidy up a few of her big targets – California, New York as seems likely, but even though Super Tuesday is big, it is far from a conclusive contest. It only gives a snap-shot of where things are right now. There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge between now and the end result, especially on the Democratic side.
If Obama shows today that he can get onto equal or near equal terms with Hilary, that in itself represents a huge defeat for her, and a great victory for him.
He was meant to be sorted out by now, and Hillary was expecting to refocus her campaign on attacking Republicans according to www.politicalbetting.com. Hillary will not be able to consolidate a lead in this way now as Obama, it appears is far from buried.
In the following weeks, there are two unstoppable forces working their way into this political contest. The first one is that Obama continues to consistently surprise on the upside of his opponents’ expectations. There is no reason I can think of why his trend-line isn’t likely to continue edging up.
The other factor, not mentioned on politics channels is that the sub-prime crisis is spreading more quickly and more seriously than has been expected. See HERE. Whenever the US or other governments hope they’ve drawn a line under the economic malaise and the deepening loss of confidence, they seem to find a way to ratchet down further, and send out more ripples of anxiety.
As the primaries and caucuses stretch out into the weeks ahead, the environment will be changing. The credit crunch will worsen before it alleviates, and this will cause a lot of discomfort to people hoping it wasn’t going to hit so hard. There will be a gowing desire to leave the past (such as the Clintons) behind and look for new growth and hope. Obama will inevitably catch a ride on that sentiment.
If he gets on level or near level terms with Hillary today on Super Tuesday, he’ll end up winning the nomination.
UPDATE – New York Times – As the Democratic presidential race moves on, both sides were predicting at least a monthlong delegate battle ahead.
While Mr. Obama was winning a broad assortment of states, particularly those that held caucuses that rely upon grass-roots organization, Mrs. Clinton won Massachusetts and Arizona.
It seems like the grass roots want Obama. Will the delegates stand in the way of Obama’s potential powerful popular mandate, just as America desperately needs a boost to her flagging confidence?