If Gordon does go to the polls in October as many commentators are saying he should, he will stand for election on the basis of no referendum being permitted on The EU(SR -subservient regions) Constitution.
The BBC will play the game with him all the way – but all other media including Murdoch are taking a strong line against the Constitution.
OTHER DOWNSIDE FACTORS
He’s got Scotland to worry about with the SNP surging.
He’s got the BNP to worry about which pull away Labour support. Many polls are putting others at 15% – some only 11% – but enough possibly to take up to maybe 4/5% of previous Labour votes into BNP. They will be highly active in up to 500 Constituencies for the first time.
The polls of people who defintely voted in 2005 do not show Brown winning more votes. In fact he is losing support. His gains are all coming from previous non-voters. How likely are these people to actually vote when it comes to it?
Much of his support are previous Lib Dem. Lib Dem always do better as you get near polling , as they get so much extra media. How reliable is this part of Gordon’s vote?
Interest rates are pushing ever upwards, and government finances are fully stretched. Brown increased public spending from £375 billion to £550 billion since 2001. Inflation is on the march. In the South East, many voters will be feeling the pinch in particular.
The Brown bounce exists in the media where it has been manufactured. Does it actually exist amongst people who will definitely vote? I’m not so sure.