Mike Smithson is an intelligent and professional psephologist. This morning on political betting he ties himself nearly into knots trying to find a logical explanation why when more pople are saying that they will vote Conservative in Q2 than did in Q1, yet ICM find that the Conservative share of the vote has fallen 10%.
The evidence Smithson is uncovering should be placed alongside the blatant poll rigging carried out by ICM for which they publicly apologised. They omitted all kinds of key information from a front page poll trying to paint a picture of falling support for Cameron within the Conservative Party.
I’ve been writing here that the Brown Bounce doesn’t exist for the reason that ICM polling was not looking properly at the evidence of its own polling. This morning’s revelations on PB show yet more of the same. ICM have moved away from a sensible approach to poll analysis to try to manufacture the Brown Bounce.
The only other poll to support ICM’s polling was an unweighted YouGOV internet poll, which did not factor in that Labour supporters are far less likely to vote than Conservative. It seems that the Brown Bounce truly does not exist, and never existed in voting reality. There was a flurry of interest in Brown from non-voters but not enough to drive them to the polls.
Given the tenuous nature of the very few polls used to manufacture the Brown Bounce news narrative, it is quite extraordinary how much newsprint and airtime has been given over to in effect con the public. Well actually it’s not – as, when you think about it, which news narratives are actually true these days? Any at all?
Mike Smithson provides nearly all the evidence but like the scientist that he is, he doesn’t give you the answer to the $60 million dollar question. Has ICM Guardian got involved in distorting data to fit the news narrative, in the same way that Blair and Campbell distorted the intelligence to fit the strategy over Iraq? The answer is that they clearly have. As Andrew Gilligan would say, they’ve taken the information and ‘sexed it up’.
The fact is that Saddam didn’t have the WMD. And Brown hasn’t bounced. Such is the power of the media to deceive that nearly everyone in Britain believes that he has.