Oregon’s COVID-19 data isn’t scary, so why the panic?

By J.B. Handley

Like many others, my home state of Oregon is either rolling back or suspending openings due to a surge in positive COVID-19 cases which is linked, directly, to giving more COVID-19 tests. In fact, Governor Kate Brown just extended her emergency order here by 60 more days, through September, and there’s recent talk we may not have in-person school in the Fall. What’s astonishing about all these decisions is that anyone could look at the actual data produced by the Oregon Health Authority and quickly realize that we are under no threat whatsoever from COVID-19, so please join me for that quick journey, I promise to keep this brief!

First, it’s important to recognize that EVERY virus behaves according to a principle known as Farr’s law that was discovered over 100 years ago. This explanation of Farr’s law from Oxford is incredibly easy to understand, and here’s my favorite quote:

“Once peak deaths have been reached we should be working on the assumption that the infection has already started falling in the same progressive steps. Using deaths as the proxy for falling infections facilitates the planning of the next steps for reopening those societies that are in lockdown.”

And, here’s the chart from Oxford showing how ALL viruses behave, since the beginning of time:

Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 11.05.13 AM.png

Did you read that part about “peak deaths”? When it comes to understanding the trajectory of a virus, that’s really all you need to know, and nationally we are WELL PAST peak deaths, look at CDC national data:

Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 11.00.57 AM.png

This concept of peak deaths is so important that Oxford quotes William Farr at the top of their article about him where he says: “The death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference.” What’s his point? Deaths are the ONLY way to understand the path of a virus, and how close we are to snuffing it out. And, all over the world, it’s extremely clear that we are well-past peak deaths for COVID-19, no matter what you read in the press. I’ll just show you one more chart, and then move on to Oregon. Here’s New York’s deaths, over time. Notice a peak?

Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 11.04.12 AM.png

Every weekday in Oregon, the Oregon Health Authority publishes numbers about COVID-19 in Oregon, and every day I am astonished by the disconnect between the headlines, the behavior of our Governor, and the actual data. Here’s the most recent update, published yesterday. What does it show? Well, here’s the first chart worth studying very closely. It shows emergency room visits by people with COVID-like symptoms in Oregon hospitals (not even necessarily confirmed!), and it shows we had a small peak in March, and that today the number is well under 1% of E.R. visits (it’s that tiny blue speck). Obviously, emergency room visits does not equal deaths, but we’re trying to identify a peak, and visits to the hospital is a reliable indicator, which means it’s very, very likely that COVID-19 in Oregon peaked in mid-march.

Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 11.14.27 AM.png

And, since hospitalizations can be a reliable indicator of the arc of a virus, check out this slide, showing hospitalizations over time in Oregon for COVID-19, which I got from the OHA here.

Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 11.19.11 AM.png

Notice anything? I’d make two points:

  1. Oregon’s hospitalization numbers for COVID-19 are remarkably TINY. We are averaging 7 people a day in a state of 4.4 million!!

  2. The peak obviously was back in mid-March, just like the previous slide.

So, why are people panicking? The only thing I can see in the OHA data that’s actually going UP is the number of daily TESTS ADMINISTERED, check this out:

Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 11.24.00 AM.png

Notice anything? In mid-March, when the virus clearly peaked in Oregon, we were testing roughly 1,200 people a day. Today? 4,800 a day, a 400% increase. What do you know—we have more positive cases! I just can’t make this point strongly enough: positive cases in isolation are MEANINGLESS to track COVID-19.

If you aren’t shocked enough yet at how LOW Oregon’s numbers really are, here’s another one for you, showing the percentage of COVID-like symptoms being exhibited by emergency room admits, please try to guess when we had our peak:

Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 11.40.54 AM.png

Portland’s largest single employer is Oregon Health Sciences University with over 17,000 employees. US News & World Report voted OHSU the best hospital in Oregon, they treated over 300,000 patients last year, and currently have 562 staffed hospital beds. OHSU also has taken the rare step of publicizing all of their COVID-19 data for anyone to see, which makes it easy to determine how many Oregonians are currently hospitalized at OHSU for COVID-19. And that number, as of tonight July 1, 2020 is…wait for it…THREE.

Adjustments.jpeg

Are you seeing a pattern here? If not, I’ll spell it out for you:

  • Covid-19 peaked in Oregon in mid-march

  • Our numbers today are TINY

  • The only thing that has increased is the number of tests administered, which makes positive cases a meaningless metric

  • If you think the lockdown had anything to do with when the virus peaked, the data doesn’t support that idea. The data shows we peaked well before the lockdown would have had an impact, which is true for many places, because the virus has been present far longer than we knew. Just look at NY and Italy.

But wait, you say, didn’t you open this post saying deaths was the only meaningful metric to track the path of a virus according to Farr’s law? I did, yes. Hospitalizations are also very helpful, since they are typically the step taken before someone dies (although most hospitalized with COVID do NOT die.) Oddly, the Oregon Health Authority makes it nearly impossible to find a true “deaths over time” graph from any of the material they provide, this was the closest I could find, a nearly useless interactive chart, that 207 is how many deaths Oregon has had from COVID all-time, meaning 207/4,400,000 have died of COVID, for a percentage of 0.0047% of Oregon’s population:

From OHA, totally useless

From OHA, totally useless

I want you to think about that for a moment. Because of Farr’s law, we have known for over 100 years that the best way to track the arc of a virus is by looking at DEATHS. We know that once deaths peak, the virus is on its way out, and typically very quickly. It always works, and yet OHA doesn’t even make this information easily available, they are so busy counting new positive tests. It’s crazy. Luckily, I did find a site that crunches and graphs Oregon’s numbers, and now I understand why the OHA isn’t highlighting this data. Our death counts are so TINY, they almost defy analysis, here it is:

Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 11.54.46 AM.png

And, I need to make a point about this graph. It’s imperfect, it shows an AVERAGE of deaths per day. The truth is, we have had many days with ZERO deaths. Said differently, COVID-19 is a non-event here in Oregon, the peak was back in mid-March, and the recent panic is incomprehensible and maddening.

Author’s note: I tried to be brief here. If you’d like more lengthy analysis, check out my Lockdown Lunacy and Lockdown Lunacy 2.0 analysis. And, if you have a better chart of deaths in Oregon, send it to me!

William Farr

William Farr

About the author: J.B. Handley is the best-selling author of How to End the Autism Epidemic. He graduated with honors from Stanford University, and currently serves as a Managing member of Bochi Investments, a private investment firm. He can be reached at jbhandleyblog@gmail.com

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3 Responses to “Oregon’s COVID-19 data isn’t scary, so why the panic?”

  1. haraldhadrada1 says:

    -Hypothesize a simulated global outbreak, required steps, various phases, overall timeline and expected outcomes (Rockefeller – Lock Step, 2010)
    -Create a very contagious but super low mortality rate virus to fit the needed plan (SARS/HIV hybrid research strain created at Fort
    at Fort Detrick class 4 lab from 2008-2013 as part of a research project to find out why coronavirus’s spread like wildfire in bats but have an extremely hard time infecting humans (hence the 4 HIV inserts, aka the missing key to infect the human ACE-2 receptor))
    -Create a weaponized version of the virus with a much higher mortality rate as a “BACKUP plan” ready to be released in phase 3 BUT ONLY IF NEEDED (SARS/HIV/MERS weaponized tribrid strain created at Fort Detrick class 4 lab in 2015)
    -Transport the research strain to a different class 4 lab (National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg Canada) and have it stolen and smuggled out by China (Shi Zhengli) on purpose and taken to China’s only class 4 lab (Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan China) for added plausible
    -Fund all the talking heads (Fauci/Birx/Tedros…) and agencies (WHO/NIAID/CDC/UN…) that would be involved with pandemic response prior to the planned release of the research strain to control the wanted script throughout the operation

    -Create and fund the vaccination development and roll-out plan so its capable of being rolled out on a global scale (Gates – Decade of Vaccines: Global Vaccine Action Plan, 2010-2020)
    -Create and fund the vaccination verification/certification protocols (Digital ID) to enforce/confirm the vaccination program after the mandatory roll-out is enacted (Gates – ID2020)
    -Simulate the Lock Step hypothesis just prior to the planned research strain release using a real-world exercise as a final wargame to determine expected response/timelines/outcomes (Gates – Event 201, Oct 2019)
    -Release the research strain at the Wuhan Institute of Virology itself and then blame it’s released on a natural scapegoat as the wanted primary script (the Wuhan wet market, Nov 2019)
    -Downplay the human-to-human transmission for as long as possible to allow the research strain to spread on a global scale before any country can lockdown/respond to avoid initial infection
    -Once a country has seed infection in place, lockdown incoming/outgoing travel but keep the transmission within the country spreading for as long as possible
    -Once enough people in a country/region are infected, enact forced quarantines/isolation for that area and expand the lockdown regions slowly over time
    -Over-hype the mortality rate by tying the research strain to deaths that have little to nothing to do with the actual virus to keep the fear and compliance at a maximum (if anyone dies for ANY reason and is found they have COVID consider it a COVID death & if anyone is thought
    to of MAYBE had symptoms of COVID to assume they have COVID and consider it a COVID death)
    -Keep the public quarantined for as long as possible to destroy the regions economy, create civil unrest, breakdown the supply chain, and cause the start of mass food shortages, as well as

    cause peoples immune system to weaken due to lack of interaction with other people/bacteria (the outside world… aka the things that keeps our immune system alert and active)
    -Downplay and attack any potential “treatments” and continue to echo that only a “cure” is viable to fight this virus (aka a vaccine)
    -Continue to drag out the quarantine over and over and over again (in 2 week intervals) causing more and more people to eventually stand up and protest/defy them
    -Eventually end the phase 1 quarantine once they get enough public push-back (~June 2020), and publicly state that they still think it’s “too early” to end the isolation but are going to do it anyways
    -Once the public go “back to normal” wait a few weeks and then continue to over-hype the research strain mortality rate (~Aug-Sept 2020), and combine it with the increase in deaths due to people dying from standard illnesses at a higher rate then normal due to having highly weak
    -Eventually enact phase 2 quarantines (~Oct-Nov 2020) on a even more extreme level and blame the protesters (mostly people who don’t trust their government already) for the cause of the “larger” 2nd wave (we told you so, it was too early, this is all your fault cause you needed
    a hair cut, your freedoms have consequences..)

    -Enforce the phase 2 quarantines at a much more extreme level, increasing the penalty for defiance (replace fines with jail time), deem ALL travel as non-essential, increase checkpoints (including military assistance), increase tra
    tracking/tracing of the population (mandatory apps), take over control of food/gas (large scale shortages) so that people can only get access to essential products/services if they are FIRST given permission
    weakened immune systems from months of being in isolation, to help further “pad” the mortality rate and hype the upcoming phase 2 lockdown
    -Keep the phase 2 lockdown in place for a much longer period of time then the phase 1 lockdown, continuing to destroy the global economy, further degrade the supply chain, and further amplify the food shortages, and alike
    deniability and to help cement the wanted BACKUP public script as something to fall back on IF needed (primary script being its natural, backup script being that China created it and released it by accident)
    -Quell any public outrage using extreme actions/force and make anyone who defy’s them appear as public enemy #1 to those who are willing to submit
    -After a rather long phase 2 lockdown (6+ months), roll-out the vaccination program + vaccine certification and make it mandatory for everyone (giving priority access to those that submitted from the start), and have those that are for it attack those that are against it saying
    they are a threat and the cause of all the problems (we can’t go back to normal until EVERYONE takes the vaccine… people defying them are hurting our way of life and therefore are the enemy)
    -If the majority of people go along with the agenda then let those people enter the new system (new normal) while limiting the minority that defy the agenda’s ability to work/travel/live
    -If the majority of people go against the agenda then release the weaponized SARS/HIV/MERS tribrid strain as phase 3, a virus with a 30%+ mortality rate as a final scare to push the minority to quickly become the majority and give a final “we told you so” to those that didn’t
    listen.
    -Enact the new economy model (Microsoft patent 060606 – Cryptocurrency System Using Body Activity Data) which is based on human behavior and willingness to submit (tweaked version of Black Mirror’s “Fifteen Million Merits”) using food/water/shelter and other essentials
    as a weapon of enforcement of the new economic system. Basically do what we want and get rewarded (gain credits/score and gain more access to things you need to survive) or go against what we want and get penalized (lose credits/score and lose access to things you need to surviv
    …Welcome to the New World Order

  2. richarda says:

    An additional couple of data points. At the beginning of July, the UK reduced the number of Covid-19 cases by around ten percent.
    Data on false positives is sketchy. The industry suggest a figure in the range 1~5 percent but that likely refers to professional staff in a hospital or similar setting. Add in double counting and other errors that come with scaling up a project, and it’s arguable that ten percent should be a workable figure when testing a broad asymptomatic population.
    That is going to cause many problems if it turns out to be accurate, not least of which is the destruction of the credibility of track and trace.
    Next up is the tactic of testing every patient that enters hospital. If one in ten shows positive for the virus, (being pessimistic) what then?
    Do you corral the together? And spread the virus? and remember the staff treating them are now at risk? or do you isolate them until more tests identify the real Covid-19 sick?
    Meanwhile, how do you account for these new hospitalisations? Are they cancer sufferers or Covid-19 patients? How does that show up in the records?

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