Leavers are rallying behind the Tories while Remainers look to Labour. The minor parties are getting snuffed out. This has become a two horse race. In one lane is Boris, the only man who can deliver Brexit, and beside him is the very dangerous Jeremy Corbyn.
YouGov have forecast a whopping majority for the Tories of 68 seats. It would be their biggest electoral victory since 1987. But that poses a danger of complacency, which is particularly worrying at a winter election. Meanwhile, Labour spinners are already reworking their messaging and focusing on Leave seats where they plan to bully patriotic Leavers into voting for them on the basis a big Tory majority is bad for Britain. They’re mean tactics, but they’ll be effective.
A few weeks ago, Leave.EU launched a fundraiser for a tactical voting app. We were overwhelmed by the generosity of our supporters, the extra finance enabled us to dig deep into the data like never before. However, our research has led us to the conclusion that, with the exception of a few seats, there’s only one party for Brexiteers to vote for at this election: the Conservatives.
Our analysis revealed that the Tories were odds on to win in more than half of Labour’s most pro-Leave seats – those which voted 60% or more for independence. The Tories probably wouldn’t win the other half off of Labour, but there was little evidence to suggest that the Brexit Party would either.
Last night, YouGov released their high-tech election poll of 100,000 voters. They came to the same conclusion as we did: Boris is on course for a big majority, and he poses the strongest threat to Labour in virtually all of their seats. Since the Brexit Party stood down across half of the country, they’ve fallen in the polls and Brexiteers have rallied around the Conservatives even in those seats where the Brexit Party were once strong. If we back Boris, we have a great opportunity to get Brexit done.
The massive survey, which used the same sophisticated techniques that enabled YouGov to correctly call a hung parliament at the last election, confirmed our own estimations. Where the Tories are in range, based on their performance in 2017, they are poised to plunder the Labour heartlands. Wherever Labour are safe, the strongest contender is not the Brexit Party as we had initially suspected, but the Tories.
YouGov identified one exception, Barnsley Central, where the Brexit Party are polling in second place. Labour totted up almost three times as many votes as the Conservatives there at the last election.
The information we’ve gathered has rendered the need for a tactical voting app obsolete. The app initiative was based on the premise that the Brexit Party could win seats. That turns out to be highly unlikely. A vote for the Brexit Party is a wasted one.
Over social media, in the remaining days before polling day, we will be pushing hard for the DUP across Northern Ireland, with the exception of Fermanagh and South Tyrone where we’re backing the Ulster Unionists. We’ll also be supporting the Brexit Party in Barnsley and the former Labour MP Frank Field in Birkenhead, along with a few other interesting cases.
Looking at the bigger picture, Nigel is clearly a victim of his own success. Leave.EU Charmain Arron Banks recently argued in the press that the Tories are rebuilding in the great Brexiteer’s own image. He’s right, a quick look at their manifesto and it’s obvious Tory policy wonks have simply raided staple UKIP pledges under Nigel’s leadership for ideas (see image above).
Another step further back and snarling Marxist Jeremy Corbyn looms into view. The Labour leader is a very real menace. His extremism is only matched by his incompetence. Aside from his horrifying manifesto pledge to destroy our economy, break up the union with a second referendum on Scottish independence, and reverse Brexit, Mr Corbyn will annihilate Britain’s standing in the world.
Other than Jeremy Corbyn, our greatest enemy is complacency. In one fell swoop, the YouGov poll has reframed the election from an even contest between the two parties of government to damage limitation for Labour and Remain. All Brexiteers must resist the temptation of thinking it’s in the bag. December 12 is still a long way away.
TAP – Shame the phrase ‘Best For Britain’ (very similar to my ‘What’s Best For Britain’ of 2000) was captured by the Remainers. I suggested to Farage he used this name many times. He might be stuck with his new moniker ‘Reform Party’ which sounds as exciting as a cardboard box. I would still suggest he tries to regain ‘Best For Britain’.