If Erdogan tries to trigger a war with Russia, what will Putin’s options be?

Does Erdogan Want War With Russia?
Week Seventeen of the Russian Intervention in Syria:

And how will Russia react if he triggers it

By The Saker

February 09, 2016 “Information Clearing House” – ” Unz Review” –  The situation with Turkey is rapidly getting out of control: not only have the Turks conducted artillery strikes across the Syrian border, Turkey has refused to comply with its obligations under the Open Skies Treaty and refused to let a Russian surveillance aircraft overfly Turkey. The Russian military has now declared that it had detected signs of Turkish preparations for an invasion. The Turkish refusal to abide by the Open Skies Treaty is an extremely worrisome development, especially when combined with the Russian warnings about the preparation for an invasion of Syria, and the Russians are not mincing their words:

There are plenty more indicators and warnings showing that an escalation is possible: the Geneva negotiations have been abruptly terminated, the Saudis are threatening to invade Syria and there are signs that the Syrian army is slowly but surely preparing an operation to liberate Aleppo from the Takfiris, creating a panic in Ankara and Riyadh (so much for the stupid notions that theRussians are not winning or that the Syrian military does not exist).

In the meantime, there are plenty of signs that Erdogan’s entire “grand plan” for Syria has completely collapsed that that he has no more options left (please read the excellent analysis by Ghassan Kadi on this topic posted today as well as Pepe Escobar’s take on the same issue).

I am not a psychic or a prophet. I cannot tell what Erdogan is really thinking, or whether the Turks will try to invade Syria. But what I can do is to try to make some educated guesses about possible Russian responses to such an event.

First, two basic principles:

1) If Russian forces are attacked they will hit back. Putin already gave them that authority and this will happen almost automatically with only local commanders making the final call. In other words, such an exchange of fire would not automatically be tantamount to a full-scale war between Turkey and Russia.

2) If Turkey invades Syria, Russia will act in strict compliance with international law. That means that she will demand an emergency meeting of the UNSC and that much will depend upon what the Council’s reaction will be. If the usual gangs of puppets “covers” for Turkey (which is by no means certain, in my opinion, at least not for very long, maybe a week or so max) then the Russians will then refer to their obligations to assist Syria under the 1980 “Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation” between the two countries (Russia being today the successor state to the USSR the treaty is still in force) and the 2015 “Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Syrian Arab Republic on thedeployment of aviation group of the Armed Forces on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic“.

In other words, Russia will retain a degree of flexibility to interpret the situation in one way or another. That, in turn, means that much will depend on what the Turks really try achieve.

If we are talking about the typical Turkish violation of a national border to attack the Kurds, like what they did many times in the past already, and if that intervention is limited in depth, Russia will probably chose non-military means to put pressure on Turkey. Again, while the crazies in Turkey badly want a war with Russia to internationalize the conflict and force NATO to intervene, the Russians have no interest at all in such an escalation. Just as in the Donbass, the West is trying to bait Russia into a war and Russia is refusing to take that bait. The problem is that unlike the Ukronazis, the Turks have a much more powerful military machine which the Russian cannot ignore like they have ignored the Ukronazi military and various death squads. So if Erdogan’s goal is just to look macho and flex some muscle, say like what Reagan did in Grenada, then he can probably get away with it, at least for a short operation. But if Erdogan is dead set in having a conflict with Russia, the Russian won’t be able to just hunker down and wait for him to calm down.

In the latter case, Russia will have a number of escalatory options.

The first obvious options is to help the Syrians and Kurds with intelligence. This is already taking place now and will only intensify in the case of a Turkish invasion.

The second is to shoot Turkish fixed or rotary-wing aircraft out of the skies. This is an easy option as the Syrians already have some pretty good air defense systems (including some Pantsir-S1, Buk-M1/2E, Tunguskas 2K22 and a fairly robust early-warning system) and a few more or less capable aircraft (possibly including upgraded MiG-29s). The Kremlin can thus enjoy a degree of what the CIA called “plausible deniability”.

The third option for Russia is to help the Syrians with the artillery system she reportedly deployed in the country including 52-millimeter MTSA-B guns, BM-27 Uragan and BM-30 Smerch rocket launchers.

All these options would still fall short of a “full-scale” war between Russia and Turkey. But if Erdogan is determined to escalate further then a war will be inevitable. If Turkey tries to attack Khmeimim directly, then Russia will strike back, no doubt about it.

What could it look like?

The first thing I would say is that neither country will try to invade the other one. The notion of Turkey invading Russia is self-evidently ludicrous, but while Turkey does fall within the 1000km depth the Russian military is trained to fight in, I don’t believe that Russia would ever attempt this. For one thing, and just as was the case with Georgia, nobody in Russia really believes that the Turks, as a nation, want war. If anything, Erdogan is much more of a “Saakashvili v2″ then a Hitler and he will be dealt with similarly. Furthermore, while during the 08.08.08 war Russia had to protect the Ossetians from the quasi-genocidal Georgians, Russia has no such obligations in Kurdistan.

A much more likely scenario is a repeat what we have already seen, but on a much larger scale: if Erdogan really forces Russia into a war, what will happen will be cruise and ballistic missile attacks on the infrastructure supporting the Turkish invasion, the sinking of any Turkish Navy ship involved in this effort, and bomb and missile attacks on Turkish force concentrations, ammo and fuel (POL) dumps and, especially, airfields. The goal of the Russian response will not be to “defeat” Turkey militarily, but to push back the Turks long enough to force some kind of a ceasefire upon Erdogan. Even if the Russian military is capable of completely defeating Turkey in a war, the Kremlin also realizes that any war between Turkey and Russia ought to be stopped as soon as possible and that rather than “defeating Turkey” the real Russian objective ought be to defeat Erdogan.

For this reason, the Russians, far from being trigger happy, will undertake every imaginable effort to show that they did not initiate the war, even if that means letting Turkey enter into Syria, at least as long as the Turks stay close to their border and do not attempt to change the course of the war. If all the Turks want is a thin “security zone” inside Syria, I don’t see the Russians using military force to deny this to them. They will protest, vehemently, on a diplomatic level, and they will help the Syrians and Kurds, but they will not directly attack the Turkish forces.

What about the Saudis? Well, what about them? They can’t even deal with the Houthis in Yemen, why would anyone think that they could make a difference in Syria? The Saudi military is a joke, a degenerate repression force barely capable of engaging in anti-Shia repression operations. They can make all the threats they want, but if they try to move into Syria the Syrians, Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah will all try to race each other to be the first one to finally get a hold of these SOBs in teach them a lesson they shall not forget in a long time.

Frankly, I simply don’t want to believe that Erdogan and his advisors are crazy enough to try to trigger a war with Russia or even to invade Syria. While Erdogan himself is clearly a maniac, I cannot believe that his entire staff is also composed of lunatics. Furthermore, I cannot imagine that the US/NATO/EU would actually support a Turkish invasion of Syria or, even less so, an attack on Russia. Russophobia is great only as long as it does not expose you to a continental war, at which point your self-interest and survival prevails over any ideological notions. At least I hope so.

And maybe I am naive, but I want to believe that the Turkish people are not going to just sit back and do nothing while their leader is dragging their country towards a war with Russia.

In conclusion, I want to mention one disturbing thing. A Greek elder, a monastic named Paisios, whom the Greek Orthodox Church has glorified as a saint, was known for his prophetic visions. One of the most famous one was his prediction that Turkey and Russia would have a major war which would result in a complete break-up of Turkey and the liberation of Constantinople from the Ottoman yoke (if you are interested by the details, click here and here). Now I quite realize that in our times most people will immediately dismiss such things as meaningless nonsense, obscurantism, superstition, wishful thinking on the part of a “resentful Greek”, religious gobbledygook etc. But please keep in mind that between the 15th and the 20th century, Russia and Turkey have already fought 12 wars (!). That over 2 wars (2.4 exactly) per century and that the last one happened a century ago.

So whether you look at prophecies, past experience or statistics, things look very, very scary, at least to me. And, as Ghassan Kadi and Pepe Escobar have explained, Erdogan is now cornered. That also makes him very dangerous.

The AngloZionists are experts at unleashing crazed ideologues (Wahabis in the Middle-East and Nazis in the Ukraine) but that they always seem to eventually somehow lose control over them. I just hope that the American ‘cover’ of the Turkish regime did not result in the unleashing of yet another rabid ideology – Ottoman Imperialism – or, if it has, that it is not too late for the US to rein in this lunatic before it is too late.

Erdogan and his regime are a threat to regional and even world piece. I don’t really care who removes him, the Turkish people or the White House, but I sure hope that his days in power are numbered because as long as he is in power a catastrophe of major proportions can happen.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article44169.htm

 

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7 Responses to “If Erdogan tries to trigger a war with Russia, what will Putin’s options be?”

  1. Dublinmick says:

    I would say the scenario provided by Greek Monk Joseph seems highly viable.

    Monk Joseph is famous by “out of this world” experiences such as speaking to angels, saints and even Jesus, the living God himself. These Holy beings often let him have a little glance into the future and people around him know about this unmatched talent.

    Still, the old monk is too shy to share his knowledge. Fortunately one day, eight years ago, he opened up to the warden of one of Serbian monasteries at Athos. Being a Serb, I will translate his words to English, so that you all can learn about it.

    No wonder the old Joseph does not want to speak about it; nothing nice awaits humanity. Here is what the old monk “has been told”:

    – The Third World War will start with the conflict between Turkey and Greece.
    – Jewish masons who are rulers over USA and European Union will force Turkish people into the war against Greece.

    – In spite of Greek tremendous courage and resistance, Turkish attack will be devastating. Lots of Greeks and lots of their Russian and Serbian brothers in Christ who will volunteer to help Greeks will be dead.

    – Turkey will charge deep inside Greece and will concur the most of the Greek territory.

    – At the beginning, NATO and USA will not interfere into this conflict directly, but will give silent support for everything Turks do instead.

    – The time will come that the world will think Greek people will vanish.

    – A moment before it will be almost certain to happen, mighty Russia opens its cards in protection of Greek people and Orthodox Christianity. This takes everyone by surprise. Russian nukes are launched to Turkey.

    – Darkness is covering Balkan peninsula and Near East. The World we know cease to exist again.

    – At this point USA and EU join Turkey (or what’s left of it) and declare global war against Russia and Greece.
    – Vatican and the Holy Chair will announce Holy War against “schismatic” Orthodoxy.

    – The war will be horrible. Burning people will fall from the sky.
    – USA will suffer terrible defeat and will “blow up like balloon” (for whatever it means).

    – Roman Catholic Church will never be able to return back to the positions it has today. Not even close. Its influence will be next to nothing.

    – Russians will enter Constantinople, establish their own governor, but will give it all to Greeks later on green table.
    – Greeks will hesitate to accept new territories at the start, but will accept them later and will rule over what used to be Turkish capital. Greeks will return to Constantinopolis 600 years after leaving it, as monk said.

    – One third of Turks will lose their lives, one third will accept Orthodox Christianity and one third will move to live in “some deserts”.
    – Armenia will get its lands back.
    – Kurd people will establish their own country.

    The old monk Joseph said nothing about the future of the USA except that US Forces will retreat from their basis worldwide. That will influence many conflicts and re-creations of many borders.

    Both Joseph the monk and Elder Paisios indicate Turkey will cease to exist. And Yes Russian leader Vladimir Putin has indicated to Erdogan he will make Syria his Stalingrad. I think it is also worthwhile to note that nostradamus predicts the third world war will begin with a clash between Greece and Turkey.

    “The Russians will soon take Turkey. The Chinese will cross the Euphrates. Providence tells me that many events will happen: The Russians will take Turkey and Turkey will disappear from the world map because a third of the Turks will become Christians, another third will die in the war and another third will leave for Mesopotamia.

    The Mid-East will become a theater of a war in which the Russians will take place. Much blood will be spilled. The sign that this event is approaching will be the destruction of the Mosque of Omar, for its destruction will mark the beginning of work by the Jews to rebuild the Temple of Solomon, which was built on the same spot. There will be a great war between Russians and Europeans, and much blood will be spilled.
    Greece won’t play a leading role in that war, but they’ll give her back Constantinople. Not because the Russians adore the Greeks, but because no better solution will be found. The city will be handed over to the Greek Army even before it has a chance to get there.”
    Short Biography of Elder Paisios of the Holy Mountains

    http://diiomnymi.blogspot.com/2014/03/elder-paisios-amazing-prophecies-about.html

    The Zionists want to rule the world”, warned holy monk of Mt. Athos Elder Paisios before his death in 1994

    Paisios seems to have foreseen everything: the ever more frequent and senseless wars and the growing totalitarianism of “Schengen Europe” and “Homeland Securitized” America, the downward slide of our modern, globalized world into licentiousness and madness, the approaching Last Judgement.

    “If the Metropolitans are silent, then who will speak?”

    *The Zionists want to rule the earth. To achieve their ends they use black magic and satanism. They regard satan-worship as a means to gain the strength they need to carry out their plans. They want to rule the earth using satanic power.*

    https://christconquers.wordpress.com/2010/06/06/elder-paisios-against-zionists-and-cowardly-orthodox/

    • ian says:

      What do you think the Greek thing is about Dublin’, it’s hardly a warring nation nowadays, and is surely part of NATO.?

      • Dublinmick says:

        The whole thing is a bit surprising. I never thought Turkey was crazy enough to agitate Russia.

        However in the past they have shown they believe everything in Greece belongs to them. Look at Cyprus, they have colonized half of it and tried to make the Greeks disappear there.

        It wouldn’t be surprising to assume they believe all of the Greek Isles belong to them and yes Greece is nato but so is Turkey.

        And yes Greece is not a warring nation all the more to tempt Turkey to take over. The Turks must absolutely be nuts.

      • ian says:

        Cheers Dublin.

  2. Dee says:

    Well that’s all a bit grim!

  3. salty says:

    Syrian Crisis Triggers Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Ambitions

    30.11.2015.

    http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/11/30/syrian-crisis-triggers-turkey-neo-ottoman-ambitions.html

    The Turkey’s treacherous attack against a Russian military aircraft dispelled the fog of dangerous illusions.

    First and foremost, it shows how phony was the assurances of the Turkish government about its readiness for special relationship and close cooperation with Russia.

    The desire to reap benefits is not the same thing as the implementation of long-term strategy.

    Everybody needs cooperation; there is no need to refuse it, but an in-depth analysis of the reasons that define the policy implem

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